Blank Page

A Blank Page… …

A blank page
Nothing to be written, nothing to be given
Blank all over has occupied the space in length and breathe

Nothing to be created
Just a simple old page
A page with meticulous attraction
Yet with no expressions

A page with no words, no expressions
No signs, no gestures
No drawings, no art

Seems like a time in space
That you can’t erase
The time that you have spent
All my livelihood through
And the circumstances that I’ve faced
That made me grown
All appeared to be there
But with empty spaces

I tried to write so many things
Upon that page, but couldn’t
My hands trembled, my feet shuddered
And I again had to put the nib of my pen off… …

I just keep on growing older,
Bolder, matured, experienced
In terms of age, ambitions, adulations, success
From all facets of life

All my past experiences have not
Stopped me to write my poems
On the blank page,
although I have written none as yet

Flashback of 2009

Flashback of 2009

By: Mr. Saptarshi Dutt
As I pen down this article, the year, 2009, has just come to an end. This is the time to look back at what has happened during the last year; and also to peer forward to see what is in store for us in 2010.

At the end of 2008, every betting man would have wagered a rather large sum on 2009 turning out to be “annus horribillis.” [borrowing a term from Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II]. Indeed, the immediate future viewed from the perspective of December 2008 did look particularly gloomy and dark. The global financial crisis had engulfed much of Europe and North America, and had its almost inevitable effects on the real sectors of the world economy. Leading economies slowed down appreciably, while unemployment levels soared. Virtually every ‘expert’ agreed that were heading towards the worst global recession since the Great Depression of 1930s.

Catastrophes of this magnitude need villains. Not surprisingly, the media went town lampooning bankers and economists in equal measure. the bankers were criticized because their imprudent loans were largely responsible for the mortgage crisis in the United States of America, which was the precursor to the worldwide financial disaster. What was worse was that they singularly unwilling to wear sackcloth and ashes. Infact, they continued to award themselves huge bonuses. The economists were blamed because they failed to warn the world about the impending crisis. Questions were asked whether economic theory was barren after all, if it could not save the world from such a serious crisis. Never slow in seizing an opportunity to “look good”, the Left parties in India gave themselves more than a pat or two because of their attempts to insulate the Indian economy from the rest of the world.

The first half of 2009 seemed to follow the script written by the prophets of doom. the world economy continued to sink lower and further. finance ministers and governors of Central banks of major economies met frequently, attempting to coordinate strategies for reviving their economies --- the attempts to coordinate strategies being an important recognition of the fact that all major countries had to work together in a globalized world. Enormous, truly mind-boggingly large



stimulus packages were promised by both US and Chienese governments in attempts to boost aggregate demand. On both sides of the Atlantic, governments also departed from a basic tenet of capitalism by propping up large banks, which were on the brink of collapsing under the weight of vast sums of bad debt. The danger of systemic collapse was deemed more important than leaving the market to decide the fate of these banks.

The second half of the same year was distinctly better. The stimulus packages had their desired effect in almost every country, with the United Kingdom economy being a prominent exception in this respect. All the other major economies have recovered and have started recording modest rates of growth. For instance, the latest figures signify that the US economy recorded a growth of 2.2 % during the quarter, July-September. There is little doubt that the worst is behind us, and that the recession has not been as severe either in magnitude or in duration as the one in the 1930s.

Some economists assert that “Economic theory works after all”. Perhaps, this warm glow is a natural reaction, since economists have been at the receiving end for almost a year. However, some sense of balance is called for. While it is still too early to come to any firm conclusion about the reasons underlying the short duration of the global recession, economists cannot claim that they have discovered any new theories, which have taken us out of the crisis. After all, the rational underlying the stimulus packages is old-fashioned Keynesianism of 1936 vintage.

There are some important lessons to be learnt from the global meltdown. Perhaps the most pertinent one is that the time has come to set up some kind of international regulation for financial institutions. This will be anathema to many influential economists and so, the finer details of any such regulation have to be carefully worked out. Certainly, attempts to impose stringent rules are bound to be shot down. It is also tempting to suggest that banks should not be allowed to become too big. Governments are tempted to rescue large banks when they are on the verge of collapse because their sheer size implies that they would have large ripple effects on the rest of the financial sector. But, then, if large banks know that they will be tempted to undertake unduly risky projects since the downside risk is indeed very low.

Of course, no discussion of the events of 2009 can be comprehensive without mention of the Copenhagen summit or “fiasco”--- as it has come to be labeled. Practically everyone recognized that efforts to prevent global warming must be



amongst the most important priorities of the global community. Unfortunately, all countries need to make some cedetions --- [big or small] to ensure a meaningful solution. Since the developed and developing countries could not come to an agreement on the levels of sacrifices that the two sides would make, the final agreement is essentially a toothless document full of platitudes.

The last year has also underlined the important shift in the balance of power in the international arena. Everyone realized that the global recovery would be infinitely slower unless the Chinese economy managed to get back to the near miraculous levels of growth that it has achieved in the last 30 years. Indeed, eyes were also focused on the performance of the Indian economy. Although per capita incomes remain low in these nations, the sheer sizes of their economies contribute to their growing clout in world affairs.

What does the future hold for India? The finance minister believes that the Indian economy is poised to reach a growth rate of over 8%. This euphoria is not misplaced. Even in the worst of times, the economy was quite far away from any recession---we managed to grow at around 5%. There are also clear indications that the economy has grown healthier. The only sector that is still in the doldrums is the export sector. Since the global environment can only improve over time, even Indian exports will increase, and so our Hon’ble Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s forecast does seem to have a sound basis.

Authored by:
Saptarshi Dutt
January 22, 2009


Reference:

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